i'm not surprised that usd is growing. i'm surprised with the behavior at which it moves... we're just a little short than a month from the debt hysteria and the spending cuts which both will play in usd favor. but these three issues (third being the tax increases) will not affect the economy immediately - it's a long drag, taxes being the longest and debt ceiling being the absurdest...
it is not the US we should be concerned about - it is the EU! we've been hardly given any news on the EU countries lately but we will and very soon. my primary indicators are the bond yields of the countries like Spain. it's down, it's even less than i predicted it to be in July (less than 5,5%. in July the rates were more than 7%), and it is a bullish sign. but i don't think they will stay down for too long, in fact i think the events in the US will be the wake up call (it's like that "US sneezes and the rest of the world gets a heart attack" or something like that...) - the credit rating will be cut for sure and that will send a shock wave on the EU bond market. that in turn will push the euro down and the usd up and the circle will complete itself... and if not - the expensive euro is like a rope around EU's neck - unless they lower interest rates to 00 EU's econ won't be able to function. it's like a perfect bear market with high demand for usd in the US and high need for a cheaper euro in the EU, and yen Japan as well for that matter...
my major question is with China - was it just a Christmas boost? i think it was. and i think there was an internal increase in demand. after all with the third world econ - the EU - suffering from high unemployment (up to 25% in more than 1 country) where is the demand for Chinese stuff coming from?!...
Комментариев нет:
Отправить комментарий